Who will win the 2024 election, Trump or Harris? Newsweek writers’ verdicts

It is three weeks to Election Day, when America will decide whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will be the next U.S. President. Polling suggests the race to the White House will be incredibly tight, with both candidates eyeing feasible paths to victory. Newsweek’s writers declare who they think will win and why. Plus, you can have your say with the comment form below and vote in our poll.
Donald Trump is winning the presidential election. While the race between Trump and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris remains close, virtually every poll over the last two weeks shows Trump gaining ground on Harris, while almost no polls show Harris gaining or even holding ground against Trump. Crucially, the most accurate polls now show Trump leading in all or almost all swing states. If that lead holds over the next three weeks, it will guarantee him an Electoral College victory, particularly if we bear in mind that polling historically undercounts Republican votes. Meanwhile, Harris and Walz move from gaffe to gaffe.
Paul du Quenoy is President of the Palm Beach Freedom Institute
The only thing you need to know about who currently has the advantage in the presidential election is that Vice President Kamala Harris is demanding another debate with former President Donald Trump. That’s a sure indication that her internal polling shows that she is losing. After Harris’ post-coup surge, the forces of political gravity have reasserted themselves. A failed administration’s disastrous policies on the economy and illegal immigration remain the most important issues for most Americans. The Democrats are bleeding support from African-Americans and Hispanics and have a gender gap problem with men. An ongoing political realignment, which is shifting working class voters to the GOP while Democrats have become the party of credentialed elites, Wall Street and the very poor, has not been reversed. Harris’ terrible performance in even friendly interviews and inability to decide between repudiating Biden or continuity with his left-wing policies is a reminder of the political incompetence that characterized her vice presidency. The race is close but Harris is sinking and Trump, whose strength has always been under-estimated by pollsters, is gaining ground. Unless something important changes in the next three weeks, Trump is headed back to the White House.
Jonathan Tobin is Editor in Chief, JNS.org
In a tumultuous election with wild swings back and forth, it appears that former President Donald Trump has the edge as the election approaches. Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign has made 2 critical errors. One, it failed to define Kamala early. Large chunks of the voters still say they don’t know who she is. Second, they tried to nurse their early lead instead of aggressively advancing their position. As a result, they’ve allowed the race to return back to what it originally was: a close race with a slight but durable Trump advantage. Anything can still happen, but as of right now it’s Trump’s race to lose.
Darvio Morrow is CEO of the FCB Radio Network
The last two weeks we’ve seen polling momentum swing away from VP Kamala Harris. The RCP Electoral College map shows Donald Trump ahead in six of the seven toss-ups. The numbers are too close to put much stock in, let’s stick to the vibes each campaign is putting out. Over the last week, Harris and Walz have been making the media and new media rounds, drastically changing their communications strategy. You don’t do that if your current strategy is working. How did it go? Even Saturday Night Live is making fun of the results. Trump continues to hold enthusiastic rallies, and JD Vance is laying waste to every legacy media host who dares to go toe-to-toe with the VP-hopeful. This is a vibes election, and the vibes aren’t looking great for Democrats.
Bethany Mandel is co-author of Stolen Youth
Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States. If the test is, “it’s the economy stupid” Harris wins. The stock market is up. Unemployment and inflation are down. But this election is really about voting against Donald Trump. Before President Biden pulled out the race, many Americans thought they would have to live with Trump because they had no competent alternative. They got one with Harris. Now they can vote against Trump, a liar, fraudster, rapist, and insurrectionist. Harris has given Americans nothing to fear. But with Trump, Americans have everything to lose.
Thomas Moukawsher is a Retired Judge and Author
Since August, Kamala Harris has held a small but persistent lead in national polling. With narrow but consistent advantages in just enough states to cross the threshold of 270 electoral votes in November, Harris is more likely than not to win. But her cautious, conservative campaign, her refusal to distance herself from Biden on issues like immigration and her largely unimaginative policy platform are keeping Trump in the race. Even a modest polling error by recent standards or an unforeseen event could propel Trump to victory unless Harris finds a way to further broaden her appeal with just three weeks to go.
David Faris is an Associate Professor, Roosevelt University
Imagine pitching this to a Hollywood studio: a twice-impeached former president, failed on Covid, had the worst jobs record in modern history, killed Roe, offshored manufacturing, incited an insurrection, and now proposes a plan that would supercharge inflation, yet has the race dead even three weeks out while being significantly out-campaigned. You’d be laughed out of the office. Except here we are. Democrats can bemoan causes (sane-washing media, fuzzy voter memories, the Electoral College) all we want. But look at the scoreboard. The fact that Trump has this within a hair’s breadth is remarkable. He’s winning right now.
Matt Robison is a writer, podcast host, and former congressional staffer
It’s almost too tempting to be clever with my answer, saying something pithy like: “So far, democracy is the winner!” But I’ll refrain and just give a straight-up answer: From where we sit today, it looks like Donald Trump is winning the election. Trump remains the Teflon Don, withstanding felony convictions, assassination attempts, and an opponent who has proven to be historically stellar at fundraising. Yet Trump is standing strong and has gained notable ground in the Hispanic and Black voting verticals—even in a week where he managed to insult the entire City of Detroit. Anyone who bet that Trump wouldn’t gain momentum over this past month wasn’t paying enough attention.
Aron Solomon is a legal analyst
Anyone who tells you the election is in the bag one way or the other is high on their own supply. But almost anything former President Trump could do to actively lose votes is baked in, and he continues to throw “No Tax on [Favored Swing State Constituency]” proposals at the wall to see what sticks. Meanwhile, the air is slowly leaking out of the “Politics of Joy” balloon. Unless she’s able to change the dynamics of the race, the downside risk is now firmly on VP Harris’ side of the ledger. Barring a major surprise, Trump will just barely grind out a win in Michigan and Pennsylvania, and thus win back the White House.
Patrick T. Brown is a Fellow at The Ethics and Public Policy Center
Three weeks before Election Day the race is tied—both nationally and in the seven battleground states that will decide the outcome. With no more debates and the window dwindling for an October Surprise to substantially alter a race in which millions of Americans are already voting in, this race is going to come down to the Get Out The Vote (GOTV) efforts of the campaigns. A good GOTV campaign can move a race 0.5% to 1.5%. And in a close election, like this one, that is the difference between winning and losing. Advantage Harris here. Harris’ path to victory runs through turning out high propensity voters with a proven GOTV machine while Trump is trying to turn out low propensity voters with a GOTV effort that has been turned over to MAGA grifters. Add in Harris’ substantial financial advantage and the work her campaign has done to chip away at Trump’s polling advantages on the economy and who represents change and, three weeks out, I’d much rather be her than him. But it’s going to be close.
Doug Gordon, Democratic Strategist and CEO UpShift Strategies